“He was tired when he got back from Menangle a month ago and has got better every week since and that might be the case again,” Phelan says.
“We know last week was worth 10 times more than this race and it was [a] very hard run but we hope it has brought him on even more.
“He was still on the way up last week because we didn’t want to do too much with him after his Sydney trip and I think he went really well.
“This week’s field isn’t so strong, obviously, and while we have a bad draw he should be getting close to his peak.” At his best Merlin would win tonight’s race as he has a dazzling short course record and while he has drawn the outside of the front line even if Zachary Butcher is conservative early it is hard to see him being worse than three back on the outer at the 800m mark.
The question may then be who holds the lead and how much work they have had to do over the opening 400-600m?
If a Mo’unga, or even Merlin’s stablemate Sooner The Bettor, is able to lead without pressure and cruise their last 800m in 55 seconds then those wide and back will be vulnerable.
But the reality is Merlin and Republican Party are clearly the two best-performed horses here and one of them should be close enough to reel in the leaders unless the sectionals are farcical.
Trainer Cran Dalgety says two hard runs in recent races haven’t dented Republican Party’s mental or physical well-being.
“I worked him two separate mile heats on Wednesday and when I asked him to go he knew what his job was,” says Dalgety.
“He is well and while a horse like Merlin might be too good for us I think he is at least as good as the rest.
“If Mo’unga got an easy lead he would be hard to run down but I think if there is any early pressure then the two big names should be the two to beat.”
Phelan says different preparations will level up the chances of their two huge chances in tonight’s $75,000 NZBS Harness Millions Trot.
The first rich 3-year-old trot of the season sees last season’s clear best juvenile Meant To Be return as well as his Purdon/Phelan stablemate Higher Power.
Phelan thought there was little between the pair last season but ultimately Meant To Be proved the stronger yet he goes into tonight’s 2200m mobile slightly disadvantaged.
“Higher Power has had a workout, so will be closer to race fitness whereas Meant To Be hasn’t,” says Phelan.
“If you go on their records last season Mean To Be was better but I don’t think by much so with the workout to get Higher Power fitter, I think they should be rated about equal for this race.”
That suggests Higher Power is a good cover bet for those backing Meant To Be or even a handy Top 2 option at $2.20.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
